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Superforecasting — Stewart Brand's Summary of SALT Talk by Philip Tetlock

Will Syria’s President Assad still be in power at the end of next year?  Will Russia and China hold joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean in the next six months?  Will the Oil Volatility Index fall below 25 in 2016?  Will the Arctic sea ice mass be lower next summer than it was last summer?

Five hundred such questions of geopolitical import were posed in tournament mode to thousands of amateur forecasters by IARPA—the Inatelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity--between 2011 and 2015.  (Tetlock mentioned that senior US intelligence officials opposed the project, but younger-generation staff were able to push it through.)  Extremely careful score was kept, and before long the most adept amateur “superforecasters” were doing 30 percent better than professional intelligence officers with access to classified information.  They were also better than prediction markets and drastically better than famous pundits and politicians, who Tetlock described as engaging in deliberately vague “ideological kabuki dance."

Small Quilt By Lesley


Vintage kimono fabric, 17"x24"
Lesleycreed.com

Tiny Homes For Rent, $350/Month, in Northwestern Washington

"Unique, off-grid, TINY Home located on a 46-acre agroforestry farm. Each beautiful, one room cabin has a wood-stove, built in double bed, writing desk and personal kitchen within its small footprint. Although tiny, each cabin is self-contained and have sufficient storage. The kitchen is equipped with a propane stove-top, open shelving and a counter-top water dispenser.

"We're off-grid, with no electricity or running water! Our rustic cabins use a wood-stove for heating. A hand-pump well and rain catchment provides for all of our water needs.…"
http://bellingham.craigslist.org/apa/5335695095.html